Anime: Future and Reality

Cyzo: "The Future and Reality of the Anime Industry Visible in 'Databasing,' 'Regional Branding'"

Japan's Cyzo Magazine reports from the 2009 JAM (Japan Anime Collaboration Market), a symposium held on the 15th of this month.

Some fun facts about fluctuations in the anime space-time continuum, as reported at JAM:

-The direct-to-video OVA boom in 1985 resulted in a drop in the number of televised anime series, but a subsequent rise in late-night anime programming eventually bridged the gap.

-The success of Evangelion in 1995, and the one-two punch of Pocket Monsters and Mononoke Hime in 1997, marked the beginning of serious investment into the anime world.

-The success of late-night anime's ability to promote DVDs resulted in an increased number of productions beginning in 1998.

-The dawn of the 21st century marked a rapid decline in the number of anime created for children.

-Today, an overabundance of titles has resulted in a drop-off in profits per title, a trend that shows no sign of letting up. The sheer volume of series means there is no way for the average fan to purchase DVDs of all of the shows that they like. Anime sales peaked in 2006 and have been steadily declining ever since.

-Meanwhile, debate continues as to whether Japan's clinging to 2D animation techniques truly represents "tradition" or "backwardness" given that nearly every other country's animators have wholly embraced 3D technologies.

Other topics included a talk on "regional branding," spotlighting the success of far-flung municipalities using mascot characters like Hikonyan to attract tourists to events, and the use of specific towns and areas as backdrops for anime productions, which attracts domestic and foreign anime fans on "pilgrimages." Summer Wars was cited as a specific example.

Are furry mascots and Japan's countryside the future of Japanese anime...? In the short term, at any rate, the answer appears to be "yes."

Comments

[Steve Harrison]

Gee, alot of that sounds very familiar :)

I would be concerned about them being a bit too isolated in what they're looking at, however. Ignoring my usual stuff about toy companies, do they also dismiss the Nintendo Famicon factor, how that took audience away from anime?

And no, I don't see the clinging to 2D animation to be 'backward'. all that MOE would not be served by full 3D animation, nor would a cool Robot show.

There's a BUNCH of really, really crappy 3D CG shows running on NBC on Sat. Morning now, the Qubo block. It's not really kidvid so much as 'we can't really do anything else with this timeslot so, here, something that makes Veggietales look like Shakespear'

Blargh

[RMilner]

I like the look of 2D animation and I'm sure it still has a role.

The point about computer animation is not that it is 3D, it is that it makes possible much easier and cheaper production. For example, in-betweening can be done automatically.

[Carl]

I've suggested that one of the reasons the "next Evagelion" has had so much trouble arriving is because of the relegation of so many anime to late-night TV, often on premium satellite channels.

It is easy to forget that Evangelion was on broadcast TV, 6:30 PM on Sundays. It certainly took controversy for its content in that time bloc, but one way of looking at it (and certainly, an accurate way) is that it took risks and took heat, but it won. Admittedly it was on the smaller TV Tokyo, but it also had an audience of ten million for its final episode--remarkable numbers for an anime of its type.

I remember hearing at the time, however, accusations that Evangelion was not only sloppy and confusing from a professional standpoint, but that content-wise it had been "irresponsible" and had "ruined things" for other anime by "going too far." If Eva were pitched as a concept today, it would almost certainly be a late-night show--and one rationale of the late-night concept was to reassure that young people wouldn't accidentally get exposed to this type of anime in the future.

The problem is, of course, that a lot of other people aren't going to get exposed to it either, most particularly the casual, curious viewer. How can you expect another breakout hit when your response to the last one was to build a walled reservation? Relegation to late night wasn't necessary a compliment to anime; there was almost a sense that Evangelion had managed to get away with something it properly shouldn't have. That sense is a measure of what anime failed to gain in Japanese society at that moment, rather than a measure of the things it achieved.

[Tim Eldred]

Having worked in both 2D and 3D animation, I can tell you that it only becomes possible for 3D to be cheaper if you gut it to the bare minimum, the sort of material Steve is talking about on NBC Sat AM. If you want to replace 2D with something that looks just as good in 3D, you just trade one set of problems for another. It's not cheaper at all. In fact, the investment curve at the beginning is much steeper since most of your problems don't become apparent until you get to the render stage. If it's a drawing on paper, you can accurately judge the outcome at a glance.

This is why I think 2D will take a long, long time to die, if it ever does.

[MattAlt]

I definitely think the late-night slots are preventing a lot of anime from gaining a foothold among anyone besides college kids and chronic insomniacs, but then again, a lot of it is fringe stuff anyway. "Evangelion" may have pushed the envelope in a lot of ways but it depended on a narrative (at least at first) and centered around a drama even non-otaku could identify with.

But I am really interested in the "regional branding" thing. Local mascots have been getting a lot of press recently (such as the beleaguered Nara mascot character), and the deliberate setting of anime in specific cities to encourage tourism definitely seems to be taking off. When Hiroko and I were up north in Tono a few weeks back, the locals were heavily promoting themselves as being the setting of the movie "Summer Days With Kappa Coo."

[Carl]

"Anime tourism" has an interesting resonance for me, since it was what prompted my own first trip to Japan in 1987--and it really was seeing sights as much as it was shopping (in fact, I didn't really buy all that much). The "The Anime" Megazone Two Three book literally contained a street-by-street breakdown (together with guide maps) of the neighborhoods in Harajuku, Shinjuku, Roppongi and Shibuya where scenes in the OAV took place, and I made it my business to try and seek out as many of these places as possible.

I don't think it was the intent of MZ23 to draw business or foot traffic to those neighborhoods (that would have hardly been necessary), but rather, to give the anime a this-moment feel. Nevertheless, to a teenage foreigner, it had the effect of reinforcing an image of Tokyo as the most romantic city on Earth, the place you wanted to be.

You begin to understand after a while, of course, just how much postwar perceptions of Japan as a whole have been mediated through Tokyo. Considering how Tokyo-cetric the model of postwar Japanese development was, the re-examination of that model must surely involve more local initiative (I understand, for example, that Hokkaido, Niigata and Fukuoka pursue a lot of foreign trade contacts on their own, just as U.S. states do).

One reason I like the manga EXCEL SAGA so much is that it is so Fukuoka-centric...showing it as a city as absurd and corrupt as any other, but definitely its own place with its own history. Matt, as you know, in America it's quite common for people to move to states and cities with more opportunity. I imagine that's much less true in Japan, but nevertheless, are there regions outside of Tokyo that are seen to have better job prospects right now?

[Steve Harrison]

Matt, I see the 'regional show' to be the ultimate exercise of the snake eating its own tail.

Oh, sure, I'd love for someone to make a cartoon about the big art image of Grand Rapids, the Calder 'Stable', a big red metal..bird-thing, but what do you do with it? the only way to make more money is on syndication, and who in, say, Detroit wants to know about Grand Rapids?

I am VERY interested in what Carl was saying, because it seems to echo in many details the death of the Kidvid slot here in local TV station programming. One of the huge info gaps that NEVER is addressed in discussing anime in its natural habitat (that is, Japan), how the TV networks are set up, how local stations work, how they get content, etc. It's just like the other info gap, explaining the retail chain from manufacturer to retailer. Nobody does this but it MATTERS, because the 'how' of product moving explains 'why'

(nobody in the US addressing the death of anime as a retail product has addressed the truth that the closing of over 3000 stores since 2005 is the key problem, and since the retail infrastructure is GONE nothing, NOTHING they do is going to make those sales return to normal. Manga as a catagory is hanging on, but if Borders does finally go under, look for the big crash there)

The problem of finding the 'next Eva' is the same as finding the 'next Pokemon' here, only a bit different. I assume anime is still running at 6:30 PM Sunday on TV Tokyo because anime is just another entertainment form. In the US anime is STILL = cartoons, and Cartoons are still kidvid, and the only REAL success Kidvid had was that all important 3-5 PM M-F timeslot on local stations, and that's GONE, totally utterly gone, taken over by chick-chat shows, Judge shows and endless, endless infomercials. Without being able to capture hundreds of thousands of kids coming home from school, amped up from the day, left to their own devices for that 'pre dinner' period, EVERY attempt to create a hit will fail. It MUST fail. Those cartoons in the late afternoon were powerful, powerful things. It became our common language at school. "did you see ()? COOL!" And it's stunning that nobody understands that. They just figure if you place a show on TV, no matter how fractionalized the channel, how few the eyeballs, it's JUST AS GOOD as that after school weekday syndication. It's not.

Lotta blind spots out there, lotta dots not being connected.

[MattAlt]

"are there regions outside of Tokyo that are seen to have better job prospects right now?"

I'm sure this can vary depending on one's personal situation, but generally speaking, I would answer "no."

I was something of an "anime tourist" when I first came to Japan myself, though it was more about being IN THE COUNTRY WHERE ANIME WAS MADE!!! than about making any specific "pilgrimages." Then again, it's tough to make a pilgrimage to a fictional location like the Photonic Energy Research Institute. Though after a few beers I'd probably be game to try:

http://altjapan.typepad.com/my_weblog/2006/08/paging_dr_hell.html

Your M23 example reminds me that the Artmic book contains a detailed map of former anime industry epicenter Kichijoji circa the late Eighties. Alas, now every single otaku landmark has been stripped away (unless you count the front of the station itself, which still looks much as it did in "Harmageddon.")

[Carl]

Steve, one thing I don't understand is, if those 3,000 retail outlets closed, does that mean the consumer demand that supported those outlets was also gone, and that the closings were more an effect than a cause? Otherwise, if there was still profitability in it, why didn't someone else acquire those locations and set up shop, or set up new locations? Distribution and retail are not arcane skills--this country is full of product on the move every day.

After all, it's not like those stores only sold anime--they also sold the output of major record labels and movie studios, who have a vested interest in keeping their retail sales going, and certainly more muscle than the anime companies. Given all that, if the stores closed anyway, and no new ones opened, does that mean the consumer demand simply wasn't there?

[Steve Harrison]

Matt, it's like record stores. the demand is there, but the product isn't, as in people WANT music and movies, but they DON'T want to pay $20 (and up, for DVDs).

Suncoast (Musicland Group) died due to being raped by Best Buy, and the remaining 'yes men' management, stuck in old playbooks (hey, there that is again) couldn't save the ship. That's 3000 stores there. (I could go probably 10.000 words on that but I'll spare you)

Tower Records tried to expand into 'everything pop culture' but they were too tied to music industry thinking, hey, old playbooks again, and they died. That was only around 20 stores or so IIRC. Maybe as many as 50.

Circuit City never had a handle on home video, they tried to follow the Walmart/Target model (new blockbuster releases, high profile catalog and rotating 'speciality event' dumps such as Valentine's day, memorial day, etc.) and they died. That was over 500 stores IIRC.

Best Buy, after raping Suncoast (firing management, imposing policies that drove employees away, then after 3 years casting Musicland Group aside in a ditch taking the ENTIRE SUPPLY/SUPPORT INFRASTRUCTURE of warehouses and suppliers. leaving Suncoast scrambling to replace suppliers for EVERYTHING from lightbulbs to receipt paper to bags and of course the movies), spent the next two years shifting their sales from catalog to TV-on-DVD, then shifting the focus to blu-ray, and now they've reduced their DVD area to about 30% of what it was in 2005. Anime has taken the biggest hit of all, but ALL genre are hit bad, and they've REMOVED most of the sub-listings so Action encompasses SF and Horror and Martial Arts and War and Westerns and it's a BITCH to find ANYTHING now, plus they've raised their prices which combined is hurting sales and of course they don't 'understand' what the problem is... Best Buy's changes is in effect the same as another 1000 stores closing in terms of product not being ordered.

Of course what SOME of this is, the Studios are hoping, PRAYING that video-on-demand is finally about to kick in and be the big revenue generator so they can finally get out of the physical media business and once again have ultimate control over what you watch, and you will PAY every single time you want to watch a favorite movie. No more of this NOT making money every time you pop that 'Streets of Fire' DVD in the player, nosiree! So they, the studios, see the 'decline' of home video sales as a GOOD thing because it PROVES that moving to VOD is the RIGHT move.

Allow an example from the stone age.

Back in the '90s, Walmart was the #1 seller of VHS in the country (Suncoast was #2). At one point, around 1999, when DVD was in its early days, Walmart decided that it wasn't going to report its VHS sales to the various tracking agencies such as Vidscan. Guess what the headline was on Video Business not long after? "VHS sales decline 40% in 4Q" and this was seen as the official tombstone of VHS, it was now dead. But Walmart was still selling tapes by the buttload, the biggest category Kidvid. Kidvid was a holdout for VHS, lasting up to I think 2003, because parents didn't want to give a DVD to a kid, they didn't have DVD players as 'babysitters' and kids could learn to pop in a tape but playing a DVD was more involved.

The lesson being, don't mistake what the pundits say, go look at what people are actually DOING. People want movies (and music), they don't, and won't, pay too much for it. And with the American anime studios clinging to the $29.99 4 episodes/disc model (or the $70 and up box set), the buying public WHO USED TO BE ONBOARD when they had places where they could look at it turns their back.

whew. everyone bored to tears yet? :)

[Steve Harrison]

and dammit, I attributed my reply to Matt when it should have been to Carl, I profusely apologize.

I'm tired and my Grammar class is messing with my head.